Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

752
FXUS64 KSHV 220501
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1101 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

High pressure remains dominate across the CWA tonight. This is
evident as winds are generally calm, and clear skies once again
prevail overhead. Temperatures are quickly falling with many
already approaching freezing. Given the enhanced cooling in play,
elected to make temperatures a few degrees cooler across the CWA
overnight, with many expected to fall into the mid to upper 20`s,
and low 30`s. Coldest temperatures will be situated across the
central and eastern zones, where the influence of the sfc high to
the NE will help prevail calmer winds for a longer period when
compared to the light winds currently in place across the western
counties in east Texas. Aside from the this, no other changes were
needed in this update.

KNAPP

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Surface high pressure will remain in place across the region
through tonight, leading to continued clear skies, light winds,
and cooler conditions. This will actually remain the case through
the remainder of the short-term period and will honestly be more
of a temperature forecast than anything. So without further adieu,
lows tonight will range from the upper 20s across the eastern
half of the forecast area thanks to the influence of the surface
high. The western half of the forecast area will be in the lower
30s tonight, this is because the surface high will not have as
much of an influence over this area. Sunday will remain mostly
cool across the region, with temperatures ranging from the lower
to upper 50s, perhaps some lower 60s across some of our southern
zones. Sunday night will be slightly warmer than tonight, with
lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

The long-term portion of the forecast period is where things get
interesting as a series of troughs will bring a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms to the area. Upper-air pattern early
Monday morning will feature a developing trough just east of the
Rockies that will continue to try and develop through the day
Monday. In response to this, showers and thunderstorms could
develop across portions of the area late Monday evening and
continue into Tuesday morning. Right now the best chances will be
for our northern zones. In addition to this developing trough, a
weak surface low and associated cold front will develop across
central Texas. None of this activity is expected to become severe.

On Tuesday, it looks like there will be more widespread showers
and thunderstorms that progress through the area during the day.
There does remain some severe potential that could develop through
the day, although it seems to be on the lower end, we will still
need to watch it. Lingering showers and thunderstorms remain in
place for Christmas morning, but will gradually come to an end
from west to east.

A secondary trough will begin to push into the central CONUS on
Thursday, bringing another increased chance for showers and
thunderstorms to our area. Right now it appears the threat for
severe weather will be there, and will come late Thursday evening
and through the overnight hours. At the same time, yet another
trough will begin moving into the Panhandle of Texas and will
bring yet another round of potentially severe weather to the area
Friday evening and into Saturday morning. There is still some
discrepancy in the model solutions at this time, so exact timing
and locations will still need to be worked out over the coming
days. Regardless, we should all be watching this first system to
move through on Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. While it
might not have the greatest severe risk, it could dampen some
Christmas Eve activities with moderate to heavy rainfall. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

For the 22/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail as mostly
SKC continues to dominate our airspace. Some cumulus will return
during the latter half of the period as sfc/low-level flow veers
more SE between 5-10 kts on Sunday. Otherwise, expect lgt/vrbl
winds this evening and through the overnight hours with continued
SKC through daybreak before clouds begin to increase from the west
throughout the day.

19

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 352 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  29  58  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  27  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  52  39  55 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  29  56  42  62 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  34  59  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  30  59  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  33  60  43  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...19