Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

292
FXUS64 KSHV 131349
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
849 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New UPDATE, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Forecast grids have been updated to account for efficient rainfall
production from ongoing convection slowly shifting eastward
across I-20. Flash flooding potential will remain elevated across
East Texas through the day today. /16/

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

 - Scattered convection should gradually expand over the region
   Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Despite the convection, strong heating and limited mixing of
   dewpoints should result in heat indices ranging from 105-109
   degrees over much of North Louisiana, extreme Southern Arkansas
   and East Texas late Wednesday morning through a good portion of
   the afternoon before some relief to the heat occurs. Thus, a
   Heat Advisory is in effect for these areas.

 - Upper ridging will expand east into the region Friday into the
   upcoming weekend, resulting in widespread temperatures
   returning to the mid 90s to near 100 degrees, with heat indices
   again nearing/exceeding 105 degrees areawide despite
   development of isolated to scattered convection.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

All is quiet for now, although the latest early morning satellite
imagery indicates some elevated cu developing over portions of
Cntrl and ECntrl TX beneath the decaying cirrus shield from the
late afternoon/early evening convection, just E of a NE-SW
oriented shear axis analyzed from NE and Srn OK into the Big
Country of WCntrl TX. As has been the case the last couple of
nights, isolated to scattered convection should again develop
prior to daybreak near and E of this weak shear axis, over
portions of NE TX which may expand into portions of SE OK/extreme
SW AR, and possibly into extreme NW LA after daybreak. This shear
axis should continue a slow Ewd drift into the Ozarks/SE OK into
NCntrl TX later this afternoon, as it approaches a very moist air
mass indicative of PW`s nearing 2 inches in place across much of
our region. As a result, strong heating and forcing ahead of this
weakness aloft should again induce scattered convection
development especially during the afternoon farther SE from Deep E
TX into N LA/Srn AR, which may persist into the evening before
gradually diminishing. However, as was the case Tuesday, NBM temps
again look underdone, and thus have bumped max temps up a tad with
the limited mixing of dewpoints resulting in heat indices
reaching/exceeding 105 degrees over a large part of extreme Ern
TX/Srn AR and all of N LA, as was the case for at least 2-3+ hours
Tuesday afternoon. Thus, have issued a Heat Advisory for these
areas from 15Z to 00Z, although some relief to these more extreme
conditions should be in the offing later in the afternoon from the
developing convection.

While the convection should again begin to wane during the
evening, additional isolated to widely scattered convection may
again redevelop late/early Thursday morning in VC of this shear
axis as it drifts into extreme NE TX/SW AR by daybreak. Again,
some weakening may again occur by mid to late morning, although
the weakness aloft should again become a focal point for more
scattered convection development Thursday afternoon over much of
the area as temps again climb into the mid 90s. Heat Advisory
criteria may be met again for a large part of the area given the
persistent tropical air mass in place, before relief from the heat
from the redeveloping convection occurs during the afternoon.
Will allow later shifts to determine whether additional heat
headlines will be needed into Thursday, although confidence does
increase Friday into the upcoming weekend as upper ridging begins
to expand E into portions of the Srn Plains/Ozarks. Meanwhile, the
lingering shear axis is progged to weaken further Friday into
this weekend as it becomes wedged between this ridge and
additional ridging that will expand W across much of the Gulf.
However, ample moisture coupled with strong heating should again
result in isolated to scattered convection developing through the
weekend, which again may result in some respite to the heat for
some.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Scattered thunderstorms prevailing attm near and northwest of the
I-30 Corridor of NE TX and SE OK. Thus, prevailed VCTS at the
TYR/GGG and TXK terminals with TEMPO TSRA at both the TYR and GGG
terminals. This convection should begin weakening in coverage and
intensity between 8 and 10am as has been the case the last several
mornings, then we await in diurnally driven convection near the
Noon hours with this activity expected to grow in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon before dissipating late this
evening. Began VCTS at all other terminals beginning at 18z to
account for this. VFR conditions should prevail outside of
convection today.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 847 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through today. That said, flash
flooding potential will be higher than usual across East Texas,
and any reports of flooding from spotters are appreciated. /16/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  77  97  78 /  40  30  50  20
MLU  97  76  95  75 /  40  30  50  20
DEQ  93  71  94  73 /  30  20  30  10
TXK  98  76  98  77 /  40  20  40  10
ELD  96  73  94  73 /  40  30  50  20
TYR  94  75  95  76 /  40  20  40  10
GGG  95  73  95  75 /  40  30  50  10
LFK  96  75  96  74 /  50  30  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ059-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...13