Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

623
FXUS64 KSHV 302007
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
307 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Things have been quiet so far since this morning convection
dissipated. But, southerly winds have been on the increase this
afternoon, with gusts as high as 30 mph at times. Although we have
seen some sustained winds of 20 mph, those readings have been
isolated, so will hold off on a Wind Advisory. Regardless, it will
still be breezy out there, so exercise caution on area waterways
and roadways. As we move into the late afternoon and early evening
hours, models continue to suggest a pre-frontal trough or dryline
like feature will move into the area ahead of the aforementioned
frontal boundary. With today`s southerly winds raising our dew
points into the mid 60s and temps into the 80s, the atmosphere
should be plenty unstable ahead of this pre-frontal feature.
Discrete storms are expected to rapidly develop across the western
half of the region before eventually becoming more of a QLCS
feature with the arrival of the front later this evening and
during the overnight hours. With steep mid-level lapse rates and
decent effective bulk shear, all modes of severe weather will be
possible, especially large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be a threat.

Convection should clear the forecast area by mid to late Monday
morning, as the front exists the region. Cooler and drier air will
move into the area, with overnight lows returning back into the
50s areawide Monday night/Tuesday morning, and possibly upper 40s
in our northern zones. /20/


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Dry weather will remain across the region on Tuesday, but another
approaching cold front will bring us a chance for more strong to
severe storms by next Wednesday. At the same time, upper ridging
will build into the southeast CONUS. This will likely stop the
eastward progression of the front and stall it out near our
northwest zones for the remainder of next week into early next
weekend. Rain chances will remain across the forecast area during
this period, with more severe weather possible. This could also
result in excessive rainfall, with storms expected to train over
the same areas near the frontal boundary. One thing of note will
be where the front hangs up next week. It is possible the front
could stall just north of the region, which would be favorable for
less severe weather and heavy rain in our area. However, if the
frontal boundary stalls more southward, it could be a busy week
for portions of the Four State Region. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Gusty southerly winds and VFR ceilings will prevail initially
in most locations. However, flight conditions will deteriorate as
scattered strong to severe convection develop across the area
ahead of an approaching cold front near or shortly before 30/23z.
The storms are expected to move southeast across the region
affecting all TAF sites and may not exit the area completely until
close to 31/12z. Winds will shift to the north following the
frontal passage. Even after the precip ends, MVFR ceilings may
prevail for terminals along and south of Interstate 20 until very
late in the TAF period.

Nuttall

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Spotter activation will be needed by late this afternoon and
tonight for much of the Four State Region. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  75  56  82 /  70  10   0   0
MLU  64  76  53  82 /  70  20   0   0
DEQ  48  73  47  78 /  30  10   0   0
TXK  55  75  52  81 /  60  10   0   0
ELD  56  75  48  80 /  70  10   0   0
TYR  55  75  57  84 /  50  10   0   0
GGG  56  75  55  83 /  60  10   0   0
LFK  63  78  60  85 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...09